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From Scottie · July 31, 2026
See Capital Wars in a Scottie brief
Scottie read Capital Wars, Capital Flows, and Cassandra Unchained for a reader with the priorities shown below. Start with the rundown, open the full brief, or check every issue behind it.
3sources
13issues read
5stories included
3 of 4 Capital Wars issues included
What shaped this brief
Reader priorities
A macro trader or allocator who treats global liquidity as a central driver of risk assets and portfolio timing.
These are illustrative priorities, not a customer’s data.
Sources in this brief
- Capital WarsThe publication this guide is about
- Capital FlowsAdds educational macro and market-plumbing frameworks.
- Cassandra UnchainedAdds market structure and valuation evidence that can challenge liquidity signals.
Scottie
Scottie example brief
July 31, 2026 · Executive brief
01 / The rundown
- Global liquidity momentum flatlined this week due to dollar strength and weakening collateral values, signaling reduced support for global risk assets.
- Cryptocurrency prices remain tightly bound to global monetary trends, leaving high-beta assets vulnerable as global liquidity growth decelerates after peaking.
- Tech stocks face mounting drawdowns as changing cross-border flows and central bank liquidity restraint push major US equity indexes off recent highs.
Read the complete brief 5 stories · 3 action items
02 / The briefing
01 / main
Global Liquidity Momentum Fades as Dollar Strength Accelerates
The takeaway: Global liquidity growth flatlined this week as dollar strength, falling collateral values, and rising bond volatility sapped momentum. While the PBoC injected capital, the Shadow Monetary Base continues to weaken while investor risk exposure trends downward.
Concrete details
- Global liquidity growth slowed this week due to dollar strength and increased bond market volatility.
- The Shadow Monetary Base weakened further despite recent capital injections from the PBoC.
Why it matters for this reader: As you track global liquidity to time risk asset allocations, this fading momentum signals that broad market liquidity support is weakening across portfolios.
Original sourcesCapital Wars
02 / main
Crypto Valuations Drop as Global Liquidity Growth Cycle Slows
The takeaway: Global liquidity growth peaked in late 2025 and is decelerating, explaining recent crypto weakness. A 1% shift in global liquidity correlates with an 11% move in digital assets, making crypto roughly four times more sensitive than precious metals.
Concrete details
- A 1% change in Global Liquidity correlates with an 11% shift in the BES crypto basket.
- Fed liquidity alone shows a weak 0.02 R-squared correlation with future crypto price changes.
Why it matters for this reader: Understanding liquidity sensitivity helps you evaluate digital assets as high-beta plays on global liquidity rather than isolated tech trades when adjusting portfolio risk.
Original sourcesCapital Wars
03 / main
Equity Markets Pull Back as Macro Liquidity Pressures Tech
The takeaway: The S&P 500 slipped nearly 4% from its all-time high, while the NASDAQ suffered a 12% drawdown. Underlying macro liquidity shifts and changing cross-border capital flows are driving downward pressure across major US stock indexes.
Concrete details
- The S&P 500 index declined nearly 4% from its recent all-time high.
- The tech-heavy NASDAQ index fell 12% from peak levels amid tightening macro flows.
Why it matters for this reader: For your portfolio timing strategies, tracking cross-border flows highlights where equity drawdowns are hitting hardest before broad liquidity shifts impact your risk assets.
Original sourcesCapital FlowsCapital Flows
04 / main
Structural Tightening Emerges Across Economies Running Low on Slack
The takeaway: Weekly macroeconomic monitoring reveals that major global economies are running out of operational slack. Underlying structural shifts across these markets indicate changing fundamental conditions rather than mere temporary price fluctuations across major international trading blocs.
Concrete details
- Weekly monitoring tracks structural capacity changes across all major global economies.
- Analysis focuses on underlying economic slack reductions rather than short-term price movements.
Why it matters for this reader: Watching structural slack gives you early signals on global capacity constraints that direct international liquidity flows and impact asset valuation cycles.
Original sourcesCapital Flows
05 / main
Treasury Yields Rise as Central Banks Restrain Liquidity Impulses
The takeaway: Late-cycle signals are multiplying as flattening yield curves and central bank restraint drag down liquidity-sensitive assets. US 10-year Treasury yields are set to break out on rate expectations, while term premia flat-line as investors seek safety.
Concrete details
- US 10-year benchmark Treasury yields face upward breakout pressure from rising interest rate expectations.
- Term premia stayed flat or declined slightly as investor demand for safe assets persisted.
Why it matters for this reader: Identifying central bank liquidity curbs helps you recalibrate yield curve exposure and time asset rotations as economic crowding pressures capital availability.
Original sourcesCapital Wars
Action items
- Audit portfolio risk exposure across digital assets to account for high sensitivity during global liquidity decelerations.
- Monitor US 10-year Treasury yield movements and term premia trends to evaluate late-cycle yield curve positioning.
- Review cross-border capital flow indicators to adjust equity allocations ahead of further tech sector pullbacks.
See every issue behind this brief
Global Liquidity Flatlining from Dollar Strength and Collateral Weakness
- Global Liquidity and CryptocurrenciesCapital Wars · Included
- Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly UpdateCapital Wars · Included
- The Future Costs of Current SuppressionCapital Wars · Included
Stock Market Pullback, Tech Drawdowns, and Warsh Market Impact
- Will Warsh Crash The Stock Market?Capital Flows · Included
- Video Breakdown: Will Warsh Crash The Stock Market?Capital Flows · Included
Global System Slack and Structural Economy Monitoring
- Weekly Intelligence Brief: A System Running Out of SlackCapital Flows · Included
FOMC Risk and AI
- FOMC Risk and AI FlowsCapital Flows · Read, not included
Macro Positioning Crude
- Macro Positioning and Crude RiskCapital Flows · Read, not included
S&P500 Selling Pressure
- S&P500 Selling Pressure TodayCapital Flows · Read, not included
Trading Post July 2026
- Trading Post July 30, 2026Cassandra Unchained · Read, not included
Trading Post Shorts Longs
- Trading Post July 24, 2026 - 4 Shorts, 3 LongsCassandra Unchained · Read, not included
Michael Howell Substack
- PRESS PUBLISH with Michael HowellCapital Wars · Read, not included
Private Credit Paper
- Short Thoughts July 24, 2026 - Offshore Insurers, Meet the HyperscalersCassandra Unchained · Read, not included
About Capital Wars
Should you add Capital Wars to Scottie?
Track the global liquidity cycle and connect it to cross-asset market behavior.[1][2][3]
Who it’s for
A macro trader or allocator who treats global liquidity as a central driver of risk assets and portfolio timing.[1][2]
What you’ll find in it
The issues linked below include “The Global Liquidity Cycle”, “Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update”, and “Global Liquidity and Cryptocurrencies”. Open them to judge the publication in its own words.
- Byline
- Michael Howell[1]
How to read Capital Wars with Scottie
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Scottie read 4 Capital Wars items and included 3 for the brief. The sources covered different things, so Scottie kept their stories separate instead of forcing a connection.
Read three issues from Capital Wars
Read the publication in its own words. Scottie keeps these original links attached; it does not replace the writing.
- The Global Liquidity CyclePublic issue[2]
- Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly UpdatePublic issue[3]
- Global Liquidity and CryptocurrenciesWed, 29 Jul 2026[4]