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From Scottie · July 31, 2026
See Experimental History in a Scottie brief
Scottie read Experimental History, Astral Codex Ten, and Cremieux Recueil for a reader with the priorities shown below. Start with the rundown, open the full brief, or check every issue behind it.
3sources
25issues read
5stories included
2 of 2 Experimental History issues included
What shaped this brief
Reader priorities
A social-science reader who wants original experiments, methodological candor, and essays about behavior that do not pretend the field is tidier than it is.
These are illustrative priorities, not a customer’s data.
Sources in this brief
- Experimental HistoryThe publication this guide is about
- Astral Codex TenAdds long-form psychology, medicine, and rationalist analysis.
- Cremieux RecueilAdds data-heavy arguments across health, demography, and policy.
Scottie
Scottie example brief
July 31, 2026 · Executive brief
01 / The rundown
- Long-term data reveals risk-taking among teens plummeted since 1995, driven primarily by rising general prosperity rather than anti-drug campaigns or social media.
- Methodological analyses show psychology's replication crisis was mostly confined to social priming, leaving core subfields like cognitive and psychophysics largely dependable.
- Causal modeling using Mendelian Randomization indicates that growth hormone height interventions carry minimal net mortality risk, challenged by improving cancer treatments.
Read the complete brief 5 stories · 3 action items
02 / The briefing
01 / main
Psychology's replication crisis was mostly isolated to social priming
The takeaway: Critiques of psychology often dismiss the entire discipline, but methodological failures concentrate heavily in social priming and specific social psychology subfields. Textbook analyses reveal that social psych comprises just one of sixteen core chapters, while subfields like psychophysics and cognitive testing remain solid.
Concrete details
- Social priming researchers represent roughly 0.05% to 0.2% of all working psychologists.
- Introductory psychology textbooks dedicate only one out of sixteen chapters to social psychology topics.
Why it matters for this reader: As a reader who values methodological candor, this breakdown helps you separate systemic field-wide failures from isolated subfield replicability issues.
Original sourcesAstral Codex Ten
02 / main
Teenage rule-breaking plummeted since 1990 without direct policy interventions
The takeaway: High school risk-taking behaviors dropped dramatically over the last thirty years. Increased general prosperity—giving people more to lose—drove the decline well before smartphones and algorithms reshaped media consumption. Modern frictionless platforms now accelerate cultural convergence and cater to baseline preferences.
Concrete details
- In 1995, half of high schoolers drank alcohol, 35% smoked, and 40% tried cannabis.
- Broadband internet reached majority US adoption in 2007, long after deviance declines began.
Why it matters for this reader: This behavioral analysis provides the messy, non-linear perspective on societal shifts you appreciate, challenging convenient tech-centric explanations.
Original sourcesExperimental History
03 / main
Growth hormone interventions for height carry minimal net mortality risks
The takeaway: Parents increasingly purchase human growth hormone treatments to make their children taller. While increased cell count raises baseline cancer risk, Mendelian Randomization reveals height offers protective benefits for lung function and lipid profiles, balancing out total health outcomes.
Concrete details
- HGH-driven growth is largely isometric, though treated children average slightly lighter body mass.
- U.S. cancer mortality improvements saved approximately five million lives between 1991 and 2023.
Why it matters for this reader: You will enjoy this clean application of Mendelian Randomization to untangle complex observational tradeoffs in human growth and behavior.
Original sourcesCremieux Recueil
04 / main
Experimental History blog competition highlights quirky human-written research
The takeaway: The third annual Experimental History competition awarded top honors to deep-dive blog posts after verifying zero AI involvement via detection tools. Highlights include a DIY microbiology experiment testing probiotic tea survival in boiling water and historical reflections on overseas Chinese experiences.
Concrete details
- The competition reviewed 68 global entries from economists, engineers, lawyers, and artists.
- Pangram AI detection confirmed all selected winning blog posts were 100% human-written.
Why it matters for this reader: This satisfies your appetite for original, hands-on experiments and unvarnished essays on human behavior.
Original sourcesExperimental History
05 / main
Resource-rich nations struggle against economic volatility and governance traps
The takeaway: Nations abundant in natural resources frequently face slower economic growth due to the resource curse. Currency appreciation damages local manufacturing, while volatile commodity pricing destabilizes state budgets and weakens leadership accountability unless revenue is systematically set aside.
Concrete details
- Resource booms often trigger Dutch Disease, making local agricultural and manufacturing exports uncompetitive.
- Economists advise establishing sovereign savings funds during commodity booms to cushion economic downturns.
Why it matters for this reader: This structural breakdown offers a grounded look at how resource wealth shapes institutional behavior and policy outcomes.
Original sourcesCremieux Recueil
Action items
- Review recent social psychology citations in your reading list to check if they rely on social priming.
- Examine Mendelian Randomization studies to better evaluate causal claims in observational behavioral research.
- Read the winning Experimental History essays to explore unconventional hands-on experimental methods and narrative styles.
See every issue behind this brief
Experimental History Blog Jamboree 2026 Winners
- Blog Jamboree 2026: The WinnersExperimental History · Included
Reassessing the Scope of the Replication Crisis
- Psychology Research Is Mostly FineAstral Codex Ten · Included
The Decline of Deviance and Prosperity
- The Decline of Deviance 2Experimental History · Included
Human Growth Hormone and Height Interventions
- Will Making Your Kids Tall Shorten Their Lives?Cremieux Recueil · Included
Analyzing the Resource Curse Hypothesis in Botswana
- Botswana Did Everything RightCremieux Recueil · Included
Book Review Pakistan Aid
- Your Book Review: Breakdown In PakistanAstral Codex Ten · Read, not included
- Your Book Review: Great And Desperate CuresAstral Codex Ten · Read, not included
- Your Book Review: The Book Of AbrahamAstral Codex Ten · Read, not included
Liberal Happiness Debate
- Contra Pritchard On Liberal HappinessAstral Codex Ten · Read, not included
Data Centers Public Opposition
- Do Data Centers Cause... Indian Immigration?Cremieux Recueil · Read, not included
Stochastic Terrorism Concept
- Against "Stochastic Terrorism"Astral Codex Ten · Read, not included
Hugging Face incident discourse
- Highlights From The Discourse On The Hugging Face IncidentAstral Codex Ten · Read, not included
Hugging Face AI attack
- The Hugging Face IncidentAstral Codex Ten · Read, not included
AI Superforecasters Prediction Markets
- The AI Superforecasters Are HereAstral Codex Ten · Read, not included
Etymology links discussion
- Links For July 2026 (Part 2)Astral Codex Ten · Read, not included
- Links For July 2026 (Part 1)Astral Codex Ten · Read, not included
Hidden Open Thread
- Hidden Open Thread 444.5Astral Codex Ten · Read, not included
- Open Thread 444Astral Codex Ten · Read, not included
- Open Thread 442Astral Codex Ten · Read, not included
- Hidden Open Thread 440.5Astral Codex Ten · Read, not included
Open Thread PFAS Study
- Open Thread 443Astral Codex Ten · Read, not included
Six Slightly Skew Boogeymen
- Six Slightly Skew BoogeymenAstral Codex Ten · Read, not included
AI Chip Regulation
- AI Chip Regulation Is Not A Dystopian Surveillance StateAstral Codex Ten · Read, not included
Plan A AI Governance
- Introducing Plan AAstral Codex Ten · Read, not included
Grantmaking AI Safety
- Open Thread 441Astral Codex Ten · Read, not included
About Experimental History
Should you add Experimental History to Scottie?
Understand human behavior through original experiments and honest methodological reflection.[1][2][3]
Who it’s for
A social-science reader who wants original experiments, methodological candor, and essays about behavior that do not pretend the field is tidier than it is.[1][2]
What you’ll find in it
The issues linked below include “The Decline of Deviance”, “Blog Jamboree 2026: The Winners”, and “The Decline of Deviance 2”. Open them to judge the publication in its own words.
- Byline
- Adam Mastroianni[1]
How to read Experimental History with Scottie
Add its public feed for publicly available issues. If you subscribe to paid issues, forward those emails to your private @scottie.fyi address. Scottie does not need access to your inbox.
Scottie read 2 Experimental History items and included 2 for the brief. The sources covered different things, so Scottie kept their stories separate instead of forcing a connection.
Read three issues from Experimental History
Read the publication in its own words. Scottie keeps these original links attached; it does not replace the writing.
- The Decline of DeviancePublic issue[2]
- Blog Jamboree 2026: The WinnersPublic issue[3]
- The Decline of Deviance 2Wed, 08 Jul 2026[4]