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From Scottie · July 31, 2026
See Phillips’s Newsletter in a Scottie brief
Scottie read Phillips’s Newsletter, The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, and War, Love, and Survival in Ukraine 🇺🇦 for a reader with the priorities shown below. Start with the rundown, open the full brief, or check every issue behind it.
3sources
9issues read
4stories included
4 of 5 Phillips’s Newsletter issues included
What shaped this brief
Reader priorities
A security reader who wants Phillips O'Brien's campaign-level analysis of Ukraine, Iran, military capacity, and scenarios for ending wars.
These are illustrative priorities, not a customer’s data.
Sources in this brief
- Phillips’s NewsletterThe publication this guide is about
- The Counteroffensive with Tim MakAdds frontline reporting and human stories from Ukraine.
- War, Love, and Survival in Ukraine 🇺🇦Adds a Ukrainian civilian's account of endurance, memory, and the meaning of surrender.
Scottie
Scottie example brief
July 31, 2026 · Executive brief
01 / The rundown
- The US halted strikes on Iran after 13 days as munition shortages exposed strategic vulnerabilities, leaving Washington unable to enforce a clean war exit.
- Ukraine appointed General Mykhailo Drapatyi to head its armed forces, signaling a shift toward younger leadership and decentralized front-line combat management.
Read the complete brief 4 stories · 2 action items
02 / The briefing
01 / main
US Air Strikes Stall as Iran Escalates Regional Attacks
The takeaway: The US ended a 13-day bombing campaign against Iran after running dangerously low on advanced air defense munitions. Iran seized the initiative, launching direct and proxy drone strikes across Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.
Concrete details
- The US direct strike campaign lasted just 13 days before collapsing due to severe air defense munition shortfalls.
- Jordan intercepted seven missiles and six Iranian Arash attack drones during strikes targeting regional military bases.
Why it matters for this reader: For your campaign-level conflict analysis, this demonstrates how swift munition depletion neuters strategic deterrence and traps Washington in an unsustainable theater without an exit strategy.
Original sourcesPhillips’s Newsletter
02 / main
Ukraine Replaces Top Commander With General Mykhailo Drapatyi
The takeaway: Ukrainian President Zelensky appointed 43-year-old General Mykhailo Drapatyi to replace General Syrskyi following intense civil society pressure. The shift moves army leadership away from Soviet-era micromanagement toward decentralized front-line command and reformed supply distribution.
Concrete details
- At 43, General Drapatyi is 17 years younger than Syrskyi and possesses no Soviet military background.
- A recent Ukrainian poll showed 55% of respondents approved replacing Syrskyi, while only 15% opposed the decision.
Why it matters for this reader: As you monitor Ukraine's military capacity, Drapatyi's promotion brings a doctrine focused on unit accountability, delegated front-line initiative, and integrated drone defenses.
Original sourcesPhillips’s Newsletter
03 / main
Rethinking How Modern Conflicts Reach Final Resolution
The takeaway: Conventional military analysis wrongly treats battlefield tactical victories as the primary driver of conflict conclusions. Historical war termination depends far more on political stability, leadership durability, and economic endurance than on individual operational successes.
Concrete details
- Pre-war models falsely predicted a swift 2022 Russian victory by over-indexing on operational battle metrics rather than structural factors.
- Historical war endings show military operations act as a secondary, indirect influence compared to political and material capacity.
Why it matters for this reader: This analytical framework reframes your war termination models, proving that material supply chains and political stability predict final outcomes far better than battlefield maps.
Original sourcesPhillips’s Newsletter
04 / main
Political Rhetoric Obscures Core Foreign Policy Realities
The takeaway: High-profile political visits to Kyiv often serve domestic political positioning rather than real strategic pivots. Tactics like linking Ukrainian military aid to Iranian sanction bills primarily buy political time while obscuring underlying material shortages.
Concrete details
- Proposals adding Iran to Ukrainian sanctions legislation functioned as a tactical delay to stall congressional voting.
- US military support to Ukraine remains paused despite repeated public threats of severe economic tariffs on Russia.
Why it matters for this reader: When forecasting conflict termination, you must filter out political posturing and legislative maneuvers to focus strictly on real material deliveries and executive policy actions.
Original sourcesPhillips’s Newsletter
Action items
- Evaluate Ukraine's defense posture under General Drapatyi's new drone zone strategy and decentralized command structure this week.
- Assess US air defense munition depletion rates to adjust war termination timelines for the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
See every issue behind this brief
Phillips’s Newsletter — Midweek Update #21: Iran Is Toying With The USA
- Midweek Update #21: Iran Is Toying With The USAPhillips’s Newsletter · Included
Phillips’s Newsletter — Weekend Update #195: The Worst Week Becomes Much Better (But Not The Best)
- Weekend Update #195: The Worst Week Becomes Much Better (But Not The Best)Phillips’s Newsletter · Included
Phillips’s Newsletter — Scenarios For Ending The Russo-Ukraine War
- Scenarios For Ending The Russo-Ukraine WarPhillips’s Newsletter · Included
Phillips’s Newsletter — It Is All One
- It Is All OnePhillips’s Newsletter · Included
Phillips OBrien live session
- Live with Phillips P. OBrien and Ivanna RyzhkovaPhillips’s Newsletter · Read, not included
Ukraine defense updates
- Ukraine's interceptor drones help arm pacifist JapanThe Counteroffensive with Tim Mak · Read, not included
- U.S. poop parasite is familiar Ukraine nightmareThe Counteroffensive with Tim Mak · Read, not included
Ukraine aid and drone
- Peter Strzok on Kash Patel’s “ill-advised” trip to RussiaThe Counteroffensive with Tim Mak · Read, not included
Family reunion in Ukraine
- They Guarded Ukraine Before It Had a StateWar, Love, and Survival in Ukraine 🇺🇦 · Read, not included
About Phillips’s Newsletter
Should you add Phillips’s Newsletter to Scottie?
Track wars through operations, force constraints, and plausible strategic outcomes.[1][2][3]
Who it’s for
A security reader who wants Phillips O'Brien's campaign-level analysis of Ukraine, Iran, military capacity, and scenarios for ending wars.[1][2]
What you’ll find in it
The issues linked below include “The Rot Is Real And There Is More To It”, “Midweek Update #21: Iran Is Toying With The USA”, and “It Is All One”. Open them to judge the publication in its own words.
- Byline
- Phillips P. OBrien[1]
How to read Phillips’s Newsletter with Scottie
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Scottie read 5 Phillips’s Newsletter items and included 4 for the brief. The sources covered different things, so Scottie kept their stories separate instead of forcing a connection.
Read three issues from Phillips’s Newsletter
Read the publication in its own words. Scottie keeps these original links attached; it does not replace the writing.
- The Rot Is Real And There Is More To ItPublic issue[2]
- Midweek Update #21: Iran Is Toying With The USAPublic issue[3]
- It Is All OneMon, 27 Jul 2026[4]