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From Scottie · July 31, 2026
See StephenFollows.com - Using data to explain the film industry in a Scottie brief
Scottie read StephenFollows.com - Using data to explain the film industry, The Entertainment Strategy Guy, and Business of TV for a reader with the priorities shown below. Start with the rundown, open the full brief, or check every issue behind it.
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2 of 3 StephenFollows.com - Using data to explain the film industry issues included
What shaped this brief
Reader priorities
A filmmaker or industry analyst who wants claims about careers, diversity, box office, and production tested against data.
These are illustrative priorities, not a customer’s data.
Sources in this brief
- StephenFollows.com - Using data to explain the film industryThe publication this guide is about
- The Entertainment Strategy GuyAdds streaming, release, and entertainment-business analysis.
- Business of TVAdds television assets, audiences, and production economics.
Scottie
Scottie example brief
July 31, 2026 · Executive brief
01 / The rundown
- Rigorous data analysis of 2,600 films refutes claims that cast diversity automatically drives higher box office returns, highlighting budget concentration instead.
- A survey of 38 Hollywood executives shows paid screenwriting contests fail to generate script reads, proving warm referrals remain industry gatekeepers.
- Major streaming series are experiencing steep season-over-season viewership declines as prolonged production cycles and complex serialization alienate returning audiences.
Read the complete brief 4 stories · 2 action items
02 / The briefing
01 / main
UCLA diversity report findings fall short under data scrutiny
The takeaway: New analysis testing 108 methodology variations across 2,600 films over 26 years reveals that UCLA diversity report conclusions are flawed. After controlling for budget and release size, cast diversity shows no consistent correlation with increased box office returns.
Concrete details
- Across 108 tested methods, the median financial impact of cast diversity was a 2% revenue dip.
- UCLA's 10-point diversity bands amplify small casting choices, as one actor alters a cast score by 12.5%.
Why it matters for this reader: For an analyst tracking film economics, relying on raw diversity correlations obscures the real issue: diverse casts remain heavily concentrated in low-budget projects.
Original sourcesStephenFollows.com - Using data to explain the film industry
02 / main
Industry survey reveals most screenwriting contests lack gatekeeper impact
The takeaway: A survey of 38 Hollywood literary agents and executives reveals that paid screenwriting contests rarely prompt script reads. While winning the Nicholl Fellowship or making the annual Black List boosts read likelihood, trusted industry referrals remain paramount.
Concrete details
- Winning the Nicholl Fellowship scores a +1.1 read-likelihood boost, but semifinalist status drops sharply to +0.3.
- 53% of surveyed industry gatekeepers decide whether to pass on a script within the first 10 pages.
Why it matters for this reader: Screenwriters and analysts evaluating career pathways must note that traditional contest placements offer minimal advantage compared to direct industry introductions.
Original sourcesStephenFollows.com - Using data to explain the film industry
03 / main
Summer box office relies on blockbusters over indie horror hits
The takeaway: Emerging hits like Backrooms and Obsession provided May box office surges, yet analysis indicates indie successes cannot sustain theatrical revenues alone. Films grossing over $100 million accounted for 64% of domestic theatrical revenue since 2022.
Concrete details
- Films earning over $100 million at the US box office generated 64% of total revenues since 2022.
- Domestic box office hits above $50 million combined to generate 80% of overall top-100 earnings.
Why it matters for this reader: As an analyst monitoring theatrical distribution models, tracking total gross ceilings is vital because high-margin horror hits lack the absolute revenue scale of studio blockbusters.
Original sourcesThe Entertainment Strategy Guy
04 / main
Returning streaming series suffer sharp season-over-season audience drops
The takeaway: Major streaming platforms face steep audience decay across returning original series. Second-season viewership for Avatar: The Last Airbender plummeted to 17.8 million hours in its premiere week, while multi-season hits like The Bear continue losing viewers.
Concrete details
- Avatar: The Last Airbender opened its second season with 17.8 million hours, down from 42.6 million in season one.
- House of the Dragon season three experienced an 8% domestic viewership decline compared to its second season.
Why it matters for this reader: For an industry analyst assessing streaming economics, multi-year production delays and heavy serialization create massive friction for retaining audience cohorts across seasons.
Original sourcesThe Entertainment Strategy Guy
Action items
- Audit film development slates to evaluate whether budget allocations, rather than casting, dictate long-term project revenue projections.
- Focus networking efforts on securing direct referrals from industry contacts rather than allocating budget toward paid screenwriting contests.
See every issue behind this brief
Data Behind Diversity Reports in Film
- Do diverse movies really make more money?StephenFollows.com - Using data to explain the film industry · Included
Screenwriting Contests and Agent Reads
- Does winning a screenwriting contest mean agents will want to read your script?StephenFollows.com - Using data to explain the film industry · Included
Streaming Ratings and Multi-Season Slumps
- What Actor is Slumping on Streaming? Plus More Second, Third and Fourth Season Streaming Slumps...The Entertainment Strategy Guy · Included
Theatrical Box Office Performance Analysis
- A (Moderate and Nuanced) Analysis of Backrooms, Obsession and Theaters in 2026 So FarThe Entertainment Strategy Guy · Included
AI and prediction markets
- Bad actors, AI & prediction markets are a terrifying mixBusiness of TV · Read, not included
Matt Damon performance analysis
- Quantising Matt Damon's performances to decode his trickStephenFollows.com - Using data to explain the film industry · Read, not included
TV under-used assets
- TV's most under-used assetsBusiness of TV · Read, not included
About StephenFollows.com - Using data to explain the film industry
Should you add StephenFollows.com - Using data to explain the film industry to Scottie?
Make film-industry decisions using empirical research rather than lore.[1][2][3]
Who it’s for
A filmmaker or industry analyst who wants claims about careers, diversity, box office, and production tested against data.[1][2]
What you’ll find in it
The issues linked below include “What just happened to TheNumbers.com should worry us all”, “Does winning a screenwriting contest mean agents will want to read your script?”, and “Do diverse movies really make more money?”. Open them to judge the publication in its own words.
- Byline
- Stephen Follows[1]
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Scottie read 3 StephenFollows.com - Using data to explain the film industry items and included 2 for the brief. The sources covered different things, so Scottie kept their stories separate instead of forcing a connection.
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Sources and official links
- StephenFollows.com - Using data to explain the film industry official publication and public archive
- What just happened to TheNumbers.com should worry us all
- Does winning a screenwriting contest mean agents will want to read your script?
- Do diverse movies really make more money?
- The Entertainment Strategy Guy official publication
- Business of TV official publication