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From Scottie · July 31, 2026
See Will Lockett's Newsletter in a Scottie brief
Scottie read Will Lockett's Newsletter, SemiAnalysis, and TMT Breakout for a reader with the priorities shown below. Start with the rundown, open the full brief, or check every issue behind it.
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15issues read
6stories included
1 of 1 Will Lockett's Newsletter issues included
What shaped this brief
Reader priorities
A technology investor who wants skeptical company and market arguments about AI infrastructure, SpaceX, and heavily promoted growth stories.
These are illustrative priorities, not a customer’s data.
Sources in this brief
- Will Lockett's NewsletterThe publication this guide is about
- SemiAnalysisAdds system-level AI compute, chip, and infrastructure economics.
- TMT BreakoutAdds public-market evidence across technology, media, and telecom companies.
Scottie
Scottie example brief
July 31, 2026 · Executive brief
01 / The rundown
- SpaceX stock dropped 49% as impending insider lockup expirations threaten to flood the market with additional sell pressure.
- Citadel absorbed the Situational Awareness fund's forced liquidation, clearing severe margin-induced volatility across major artificial intelligence stocks.
- Datacenter operators are adopting modular assembly to shorten build times by nine months and bypass critical trade labor shortages.
Read the complete brief 6 stories · 3 action items
02 / The briefing
01 / main
SpaceX stock plunges 49% ahead of insider lockup expiry
The takeaway: SpaceX stock fell from its $225 peak to $115, wiping out $1.4 trillion in market value. With insider lockup periods ending soon, up to 10.7% more shares could flood the market shortly, threatening further price declines toward conservative valuation targets.
Concrete details
- The stock fell 49% in 36 days, erasing roughly $1.4 trillion in market cap below its $135 IPO price.
- Insiders holding 53.5% of shares can begin selling 20% chunks following Q2 earnings.
Why it matters for this reader: As an investor skeptical of hyped private-turned-public valuations, this impending supply surge gives you concrete mechanics showing why current prices remain fragile.
Original sourcesWill Lockett's Newsletter
02 / main
Situational Awareness fund unwinds public stock positions to Citadel
The takeaway: Excessive borrowed capital forced Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness fund to liquidate its entire public stock book. Citadel bought the position in a single print, removing a major source of unexplained selling pressure from the AI trade.
Concrete details
- Citadel acquired the fund's entire public equity portfolio in a single transaction.
- Tech momentum stocks rallied up to 17% following the resolution of the fund's forced unwinding.
Why it matters for this reader: For your analysis of crowded AI trades, this collapse illustrates how hidden fund debt can trigger massive market drawdowns unrelated to core business fundamentals.
Original sourcesTMT Breakout
03 / main
Datacenter builders turn to modular designs to beat labor shortages
The takeaway: Datacenter developers are shifting to offsite modular construction to bypass severe trade labor constraints, particularly electrician shortages. Standardized prefabricated components shrink construction timelines by nearly 36% while shaving roughly 8% off capital expenditure costs per megawatt.
Concrete details
- Modular methods reduce construction timelines by 7 to 9 months and cut capital expenditure per megawatt by 8%.
- Electricians represent 30% to 40% of total man-hours required for datacenter construction projects.
Why it matters for this reader: If you are evaluating AI infrastructure capital expenditures, modular adoption shows which hardware operators can actually bring capacity online despite severe labor bottlenecks.
Original sourcesSemiAnalysis
04 / main
AMD targets Nvidia with equity rebates but faces internal cluster shortages
The takeaway: AMD is offering aggressive equity-based rebate structures to major buyers like OpenAI while advancing its MI455 silicon. However, internal GPU cluster shortages and backplane manufacturing friction threaten to slow its software parity efforts against Nvidia.
Concrete details
- AMD's MI455 package combines 3,470 square millimeters of logic silicon across a reticle size of 5.5x.
- Structured stock rebates provide Meta and OpenAI up to a 105% equity-based discount on compute.
Why it matters for this reader: As a skeptic of AI market narratives, tracking AMD's hardware delivery delays gives you realistic bounds on whether genuine market competition can check Nvidia's pricing power.
Original sourcesSemiAnalysis
05 / main
Nvidia stock drops as market weighs $250 billion financing guarantee
The takeaway: Semiconductor stocks pulled back as investors processed Nvidia offering a massive $250 billion financing guarantee. The move pulled chip equities down 2.2%, highlighting ongoing market skepticism around complex AI hardware balance sheet commitments.
Concrete details
- Semiconductor stocks dropped 2.2% while tech momentum indexes fell an additional 8%.
- Nvidia introduced a $250 billion financing guarantee to back customer capital commitments.
Why it matters for this reader: This financial maneuver gives your portfolio evaluation clear evidence of non-standard balance sheet backing used to maintain hyped hardware buying runs.
Original sourcesTMT Breakout
06 / main
Microsoft Azure growth hits 43% as Copilot seats reach 30 million
The takeaway: Microsoft delivered a strong quarter behind 43% Azure revenue growth and rapid Copilot expansion. Management reassured markets by holding capital spending steady while accelerating cloud adoption, easing immediate investor anxieties surrounding artificial intelligence returns on investment.
Concrete details
- Azure revenue grew 43% for the quarter, outperforming buyside expectations of 41% to 42%.
- Copilot added 10 million seats quarter-over-quarter to reach a total user base of 30 million.
Why it matters for this reader: Knowing where hyper-scaler cloud spending yields real revenue gains helps you separate durable AI market leaders from unsustainable growth stories.
Original sourcesTMT BreakoutTMT Breakout
Action items
- Model SpaceX insider lockup schedules to evaluate short-side risks before Q2 earnings releases trigger share unlocking.
- Analyze AI infrastructure capex efficiency by auditing datacenter supply chains for modular prefabrication integration.
- Audit semiconductor debt guarantees to assess secondary counterparty risks tied to inflated hardware order books.
See every issue behind this brief
Microsoft Azure Growth and Bull vs. Bear CapEx Debate
- TMTB: Microsoft (MSFT) Recap, Thoughts, and Bull vs. Bear DebateTMT Breakout · Included
- TMTB Morning WrapTMT Breakout · Included
SpaceX Facing Launch Delays, Legal Issues, and Chinese Competition
- The Worst Is Still To Come For SpaceXWill Lockett's Newsletter · Included
Situational Awareness Fund Forced to Unwind Stock Positions
- TMTB EOD Wrap: the "Leopold Low"...Amazon (AMZN) Apple (AAPL) Reddit (RDDT) First TakesTMT Breakout · Included
Modular Prefabricated Construction Reshaping Datacenters
- The Wild Wild West Of LEGO DatacentersSemiAnalysis · Included
AI semiconductor selloff
- TMTB EOD Wrap: META MSFT LRCX FTNT QCOM ARM First TakesTMT Breakout · Read, not included
Semiconductor inventory and drawdown
- TMTB EOD Wrap; Seagate (STX) KLAC NXPI First TakesTMT Breakout · Read, not included
Global memory stock correction
- TMTB Morning WrapTMT Breakout · Read, not included
Nvidia Financing Guarantee Digested Amid Semiconductor Selloff
- TMTB EOD WrapTMT Breakout · Included
AMD Moves to Challenge Nvidia's CUDA Moat in AI Accelerators
- Can AMD break the CUDA Moat? AMD Advancing AI 2026SemiAnalysis · Included
Semiconductor market downturn
- TMTB Morning WrapTMT Breakout · Read, not included
Tech futures and geopolitical
- TMTB Morning WrapTMT Breakout · Read, not included
Earnings season buyside bogeys
- TMTB: Amazon (AMZN) Reddit (RDDT) Apple (AAPL) Buyside BogeysTMT Breakout · Read, not included
Buyside bogeys for tech
- TMTB: Buyside Bogeys META, Microsoft (MSFT), QCOM, ARM, FTNT, LRCXTMT Breakout · Read, not included
Earnings week setups and
- TMTB: Buyside Bogeys CDNS, CLS, KLAC, STX, NXPITMT Breakout · Read, not included
About Will Lockett's Newsletter
Should you add Will Lockett's Newsletter to Scottie?
Test high-conviction technology investment narratives against technical and market evidence.[1][2][3]
Who it’s for
A technology investor who wants skeptical company and market arguments about AI infrastructure, SpaceX, and heavily promoted growth stories.[1][2]
What you’ll find in it
The issues linked below include “Starlink Is Doomed”, “The Worst Is Still To Come For SpaceX”, and “This Should Pop The AI Bubble”. Open them to judge the publication in its own words.
How to read Will Lockett's Newsletter with Scottie
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Scottie read 1 Will Lockett's Newsletter item and included 1 for the brief. The sources covered different things, so Scottie kept their stories separate instead of forcing a connection.
Read three issues from Will Lockett's Newsletter
Read the publication in its own words. Scottie keeps these original links attached; it does not replace the writing.
- Starlink Is DoomedPublic issue[2]
- The Worst Is Still To Come For SpaceXPublic issue[3]
- This Should Pop The AI BubbleThu, 16 Jul 2026[4]